PRESS RELEASE – Embargo 0001 March 6 2006

 

Experts forecast major increase in childhood obesity by 2010

Childhood obesity is forecast to increase dramatically in most parts of the world over the next few years, according to new IOTF estimates to be published this week by the International Association for the Study of Obesity .

The proportion of school-age children affected will almost double by 2010 compared with the most recently available surveys from the late 1990s up to 2003. In the European Union, the number of children who are overweight is expected to rise by 1.3 million children a year, with more than 300,000 of them becoming obese each year without urgent action to counteract the trend.  By 2010 it is estimated 26 million children in EU countries will be overweight, including 6.4 million who will be obese.

The adverse impact on health has also led researchers to suggest that, based on the most conservative estimate, over 20,000 obese children in the EU have type 2 diabetes, while over 400,000 have impaired glucose tolerance. Over a million obese children are likely to show a range of indicators for cardiovascular disease, including hypertension and raised blood cholesterol levels, and have three or more indicators of the metabolic syndrome. Over 1.4 million may have early stages of liver disorder.

Research forecasts published in the International Journal of Pediatric Obesity , a new scientific journal launched by the International Association for the Study of Obesity and published by Taylor & Francis, suggest the proportion of obese children in Europe will reach 10% - almost double the level reported in earlier surveys. In the Middle East the figure is even higher and will also double to 11.5%. In both North and South America, the average level of obesity in children is forecast to reach 15.2% - up by half on 1990s figures. 

In the Pacific region, childhood obesity had already more than doubled to 5% in 2006 and is expected to rise to 7% - a threefold increase over previous studies. In Asia the average is also forecast to rise threefold from 1.5% to 5.3%. The researchers note there was insufficient data to make estimates for the whole of Africa.

Outlining the latest research, Prof Philip James, chairman of the International Obesity TaskForce (IOTF), said the new studies provided “illuminating evidence that the rapidly worsening problem of childhood obesity is not confined to Europe or indeed the western world but to many major economically developing countries.”

“We may well be markedly underestimating the morbidity relating to this problem in Europe, but even these figures for associated co-morbidities may still underestimate the problems found elsewhere,” he added.

He said other studies of birth weights, body composition and growth responses of children in India, illustrated the links between fetal and intergenerational under-nutrition with a subsequent tendency to become obese.

Dr Tim Lobstein, coordinator of the IOTF’s childhood and adolescent obesity research programme, said the analysis of worldwide trends he had undertaken with Dr Youfa Wang from the Department of International Health at Johns Hopkins University in the USA, showed how widespread the problem was becoming. “The obesity estimates are very cautious, but extremely worrying. When we looked at the overweight it was astonishing to see that nearly half of children in both North and South America could be overweight in just four years time. In Europe we are seeing substantial increases with overweight at 38% - up 60% on the level we saw throughout the late 1990s.

"Added to this our estimate of one million children affected by cardiometabolic risk factors should be ringing alarm bells across Europe. In the USA the similar figure is already two million - doubled from just under one million a decade ago,” he added.

“This reinforces the need for immediate and urgent action to protect our children and stop this runaway trend. We can only do this if we seriously address the need to cut down the consumption of extra empty calories in high fat and high sugar food products, and do much more to improve children’s opportunities to be active,” Dr Lobstein said.

Prof Louise Baur, editor in chief of the new journal commented: "The research we are publishing in the International Journal of Pediatric Obesity provides clear and compelling evidence that this is now one of the most common chronic diseases affecting children and young people in westernised countries and, indeed, in many developing countries."

For further information contact:

Neville Rigby, Director of Policy and Public Affairs, IASO International Obesity TaskForce

Tel +44 7939250347 or VOIP +44 208 133 1270

Overweight and obesity among school age children by global region.*

* Prevalence of overweight and obesity in school age children (defined using the IOTF international childhood BMI cut-offs which relate to the agreed World Health Organization body mass index standards for adults. ) Estimated for 2006 and 2010 baswed on population weighted annualised increases in prevalence.   Youfa Wang  & Tim Lobstein: Worldwide trends in childhood overweight and  obesity. International Journal of Pediatric Obesity. 2006 1: 11_/25

Global Estimates
 

The International Obesity TaskForce is the research policy and advocacy arm of the International Association for the Study of  Obesity (IASO).

The International Journal of Pediatric Obesity online. See  www.tandf.no/ijpo